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Anchoring (heuristic)
Anchoring is a particular form of priming effect whereby initial exposure to a number serves as a reference point and influences subsequent judgments about value. The process usually occurs without our awareness (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), and sometimes it occurs when people’s price perceptions are influenced by reference points. For example, the price of the first house shown to us by an estate agent may serve as an anchor and influence perceptions of houses subsequently presented to us (as relatively cheap or expensive). These effects have also been shown in ...
Some of us are highly loss averse, but in general we’re all averse to losses to some degree. Empirical estimates find that losses are felt between two and two-and-a-half as strongly as gains. Thus the disutility of losing $100 is at least twice the utility of gaining $100. Evenutally loss aversion favors inaction over action and the status quo over any alternatives.
Therefore we avoid making investment decisions because we’re afraid we’ll make the wrong choices. We hang onto beaten-down stocks because it's too painful to sell and make those losses “real.” That’s not unusual. People tend ...
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Home-builder confidence strong (> 50)
source: Marketwatch
A gauge of confidence among home builders remained at 60 in July, the strongest reading in almost a decade, according to National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo data released today (16th July 2015).
“This month’s reading is in ...
"Contrarian (?)" / put-call ratio at high level (1.45), last high was in Oct. 2014
Betting Against the "Crowd"
It is known that options traders, especially option buyers, are not the most successful traders. On balance, option buyers lose about most of the time. Although there are certainly ...
The Psychology of Investor Behavior (part2/2)
Scott Bosworth, CFA, Vice President of Dimensional Fund Advisors presents Part Two of The Psychology of Investor Behavior Video Series (Behavioral Finance). Some topics:
-) Words on Eugene F. Fama, Richard Thaler, John Maynard Keynes, Daniel ...
The Psychology of Investor Behavior (part1/2)
Scott Bosworth, CFA, Vice President of Dimensional Fund Advisors presents Part One of The Psychology of Investor Behavior Video Series (Behavioral Finance). Some topics:
-) Are we working against ourselves when we invest?
-) Do our instincts betray ...
Der Fachbereich Behavioral Finance beschäftigt sich vereinfacht ausgedrückt mit der Psychologie der Anleger. Die Aktionäre als Handelnde und ihre typischen Verhaltensweisen stehen im Mittelpunkt des Interesses. Es geht grundsätzlich darum aufzuzeigen, wie Anlageentscheidungen tatsächlich ...
UBS Global Emerging Markets DERI (UBS GEM DERI)
UBS Dynamic Equity Risk Indikator ("UBS Global Equity Markets DERI")
Die UBS Dynamic Equity Risk Indikatoren ("UBS DERI" und "UBS Global Equity Markets DERI") wurden eigens vom – von anderen Geschäftsbereichen von UBS unabhängigen – UBS Investment ...
AAII Investor Sentiment (bullish Investors LOW @ 20%) versus Greece discussions, June 2015
in this context the short BBC-article should be mentioned, where the German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that time is running out for a deal to keep Greece in the eurozone. Speaking after the G7 ...
AAII Investor Sentiment (June 2015)
My Input with referring to articles of other authors (11th June 2015):
Contrarian investors should pay particular attention to the unusually low bullish reading in last week’s survey. There are about 160,000 AAII members. The typical member is a male, with a ...
EUWAX-Sentiment versus DAX (Berachtung Q1-2014 bis 11. Juni 2015)
Probehalber wird versucht, mittels dem geglätteten EUWAX-Sentimet möglicherweise ruhigeres Fahrwasser im DAX von Hochrisikperioden zu unterscheiden. Exemplarisch anbei die Sicht auf das EUWAX-Sentiment (20Tage-geglättet) im ...
Topics covered in this Behavioral Finance-video:
In this episode of Symmetry Shorts, Symmetry's John McDermott, Ph.D., describes how investor overconfidence, self-bias, and perceived control can lead to negative outcomes.
John explains that Decision-Making and the outcomes involve internal ...
It is payback time for Greece in 2015 (faz.net)
...besonders Juli, August, September könnte ein heisser Tanz auf dem Vulkan werden!
Bildquelle: http://media1.faz.net
Robert J. Shiller, Co-Winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics published a New York Times Bestseller:
Irrational Exuberance is about something far more important than the current situation in any given market because the book explains the forces that move all markets up and down. It shows ...
Der ifo Index für die Weltwirtschaft ist auf 99,5 Punkte gestiegen, von 95,9 Punkten im Vorquartal
Sowohl die Lagebeurteilung als auch die Erwartungen verbesserten sich. Die WES-Experten gehen in diesem Jahr für die Welt von 2,3 Prozent Wirtschaftswachstum aus. Die Weltkonjunktur gewinnt ...
Konjunkturerwartungen weiter auf hohem Niveau (O-Ton ZEW)
Die ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen für Deutschland sind im Januar 2015 im Vergleich zum Vormonat um 1,8 auf 54,8 Punkte gestiegen (langfristiger Mittelwert: 24,7 Punkte). Dies ist der fünfte Anstieg in Folge. Höher notierte der Index zuletzt ...
IFO Index als Taktgeber für den deutschen Aktienmarkt (Beispiel aus dem Sommer 2014)
Der ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex (kurz ifo) ist der wichtigste und bedeutendste Geschäftsklimaindex für Deutschland.
Der ifo dient als Frühindikator für die konjunkturelle Entwicklung ...
Société Générale argues that CAPE "now" (July 2014) needs an adjustment for tax change
Paul Craven, well known presenter on Behavioral Finance topics (< 22 Min. - Video)
"from biases to bubbles"
30. Oktober 2006 (www.FAZ.net)
„Der Markt braucht Zeit“
Schon mal was vom Januar-Effekt gehört? Der Januar ist einer der besten Börsenmonate - in der Vergangenheit jedenfalls stiegen die Aktienkurse in den ersten Wochen des Jahres überproportional stark.
Doch weil immer mehr Anleger von ...
